Is crypto market past ‘point of no return?’



Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have been gleefully declared useless quite a lot of instances throughout bear markets, however some consultants say it could take a genuinely excessive set of occasions for it to really die.

In keeping with 99Bitcoins — a web site that, amongst different issues, tracks what number of instances Bitcoin (BTC) has been declared useless by mainstream media retailers — the biggest crypto by market cap has died 474 times since 2010.

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Usually, the proclamation is met with cheering by crypto skeptics as proof that BTC is not a viable asset, however it may not be so easy to kill off crypto — at the very least in line with some consultants within the area.

Tomasz Wojewoda, head of enterprise growth at BNB Chain, is assured it could take greater than a bear market or crypto winter to end BTC and the crypto market, although it’s been a very harsh downswing for the reason that all-time highs of 2021.

A bear market is when the value of crypto has fallen by at the very least 20% and continues to fall, whereas a crypto winter is a chronic interval of depressed asset costs available in the market.

Wojewoda informed Cointelegraph that, in his opinion, the one method BTC and the broader crypto market might die could be if one thing excessive occurred, such because the underlying neighborhood dropping curiosity and everybody exiting the area directly.

Nonetheless, he doesn’t see this occurring anytime quickly. No matter fiascos like the FTX saga and different dramas within the area, Wojewoda believes there’s all the time “going to be demand for crypto.”

“The crypto market, like all market within the economic system, strikes in waves and developments upward or downward relying on market sentiment,” he mentioned. “The market has been by a number of bear markets, however traditionally, now we have seen the market get better from related developments.”

In 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, crypto noticed enormous spikes in worth, solely to come back crashing again all the way down to earth. Thus far, after every crash, the value has recovered years down the street. 

Total, this bear market and crypto winter has been particularly savage. After reaching highs of over $69,000 in 2021, BTC lost greater than 60% of its worth in 2022, in line with CoinGecko. As of 2023, it has recovered some, however BTC remains to be roughly 40% down since its all-time highs.

In keeping with Wojewoda, difficult instances like these “can truly be optimistic for the trade” and never an indication that crypto is dying, although it might really feel prefer it. Particularly, he thinks market crashes can assist weed out unhealthy actors.

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He additionally sees it as a time when “sturdy initiatives give attention to constructing and bettering the consumer expertise.”

Regulation received’t kill crypto 

Banking regulators look like attempting to kill or dismantle the crypto trade, brandishing an array of lawsuits and an intimidating flood of regulatory measures. There are fears this might spell doom for the trade.

The USA Securities and Trade Fee, led by Chair Gary Gensler, has been particularly aggressive against crypto firms. In keeping with Gensler, his agency has filed over 780 enforcement actions in 2023, together with over 500 standalone instances.

Crypto and BTC have survived, although. Rules have been sluggish to come back and, in some cases, poorly created. Wojewoda thinks some type of regulation can in the end be a great factor for the trade and won’t be the rationale it dies.

“World laws can influence the expansion of crypto; nonetheless, with extra international locations embracing crypto worldwide, I don’t assume this shall be a motive for crypto to ‘die off,” he mentioned.

“Regulation within the trade is an efficient factor. It retains customers protected, and a transparent framework allows the trade to construct round it.”

Some crypto will in all probability die, however the trade will survive

Wojewoda is satisfied the crypto market will attain the opposite aspect of this crypto winter and past. He thinks it can seemingly survive as an idea, however not all initiatives and currencies will make it long-term.

In keeping with Exploding Matters, there are over 10,500 totally different cryptocurrencies in existence as of November 2023. Nonetheless, it’s estimated that solely 8,848 are nonetheless lively within the area, with the others dropping off or dying.

“Tasks that didn’t have a real-life use case died off, however the ones that actually make an influence haven’t solely survived however thrived,” Wojewoda mentioned.

“There are various issues that may influence the trajectory of crypto, comparable to sentiment, regulation and different components — for instance, the Bitcoin ETF submitting and upcoming Bitcoin halving,” he added.

In the long term, together with weaker fingers dropping off, Wojewoda believes it’s not “out of the realm of risk” that some crypto shall be changed by new, higher tech.

He doesn’t assume BTC shall be among the many casualties as a result of its community impact and consumer base give it a big benefit over different cryptocurrencies.

“Bitcoin will seemingly stay as the preferred crypto when it comes to market share. The place I feel we are going to seemingly see extra motion within the ranks is amongst cryptocurrencies that supply real-world functions,” Wojewoda mentioned.

“These initiatives have functions past digital currencies, and the tech is repeatedly evolving, discovering new use instances and functions for the actual world.”

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These functions are one of many causes Wojewoda thinks the market will endure long run. Whereas not all will make it, the broader crypto market and BTC will survive.

The market will bounce again, with BTC nonetheless standing

Markus Thielen, head of analysis and technique for digital asset funding agency Matrixport, can also be skeptical {that a} bear market or crypto winter poses a real risk to the crypto market and BTC.

Talking to Cointelegraph, Thielen mentioned that whereas many individuals exit the area throughout bear markets, it’s a standard a part of the method, not an indication of crypto’s impending dying.

“Many individuals have excited the crypto trade over the last 12 months, as these companies have expanded close to the highest of the final bull market,” he mentioned.

“With out enough revenues and extra capital injections from enterprise capital funds, these crypto companies must right-size their corporations.”

Proper-sizing an organization is the method of restructuring to make earnings extra effectively and meet up to date enterprise aims. Proper-sizing normally includes lowering workforces, shifting round higher administration and different cost-cutting measures.

“So long as there’s worth being despatched round electronically, crypto has a price proposition that’s tough to match with the normal banking rails,” Thielen added.

Thus far, there have been 4 bull markets — 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021 — and document numbers of individuals have entered the space every time, solely to vanish when the bears strike. A bull market is characterised by rising costs and investor optimism.

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In keeping with Thielen, every bull market is being constructed upon a brand new narrative, which is able to proceed to be the case. He says there’ll seemingly be another narrative for a fifth bull market very quickly.

“With regulators approving Bitcoin futures in 2017 and probably a Bitcoin ETF in 2024, the regulatory stage taking part in area is cemented,” Thielen mentioned.

“I cannot think about Bitcoin ever disappearing, as the concept of Bitcoin performs into the fingers of human fallacy.”