Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis

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Bitcoin (BTC) noticed a recent rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered more FTX fallout.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Supply: TradingView

BTC will get a $12,000 value goal

Knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD failing to flip $17,000 to help — a pattern in place for nearly per week.

The pair, like main altcoins, remained firmly tied down by chilly ft over the FTX debacle and its knock-on effects for varied crypto companies.

For analysts, the outlook remained simply as grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening in mild of current occasions.

“This underperformance of all crypto property is right here to remain till the majority of uncertainly has cleared up — seemingly solely close to the flip of the brand new yr,” buying and selling agency QCP Capital wrote in its newest round to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.

In an intensive market abstract, QCP wrote that its value forecasts for each Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now needed to drop to replicate the influence of FTX.

Updating a prognosis based mostly on Elliott Wave principle from June, it confirmed BTC/USD now had a goal of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.

“As a side-note, crypto markets have been buying and selling akin to commodities ever for the reason that 2017 prime — with prolonged Wave 5s because the longest wave,” the publish added.

“Therefore such potential value motion with new lows into the brand new yr could be attribute of earlier bear market sell-offs.”

An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between crypto and shares in November, with t correlation between them firmly shaken due to crypto’s underperformance.

BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Supply: QCP Capital

Widespread dealer and analyst Cantering Clark, in the meantime, famous that if the present bear market in danger property had been to repeat the worldwide monetary disaster, heavy losses had been nonetheless to return.

“The Lehman chapter was the climax of the 2008 monetary disaster. It was backside materials qualitatively, however the market paused after which dedicated to 40% decrease,” a part of a tweet read.

“By no means say by no means, and don’t let your guard down.”

S&P 500 annotated chart. Supply: Cantering Clark/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has also become a popular downside target.

Crypto pie “being lower massively”

Persevering with, QCP additionally voiced considerations over declining volumes and open curiosity (OI) throughout each centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges.

Associated: US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in one week

“Up to now, CEX by-product trade volumes have been most affected. Mixed futures OI is now again to pre-2021 ranges, an enormous backward step for the trade,” it wrote.

Bitcoin futures open curiosity chart. Supply: QCP Capital

On the subject of DEXs, it mentioned the info “implies all the crypto pie is being lower massively.”

“General DeFi TVL is now lower than 1/4 final yr’s peak!” the publish summarized alongside extra explanatory charts.

“Even DEXes which might be anticipated to realize essentially the most, have solely seen volumes rise to Jul/Aug ranges, even with all of the emergency token/stables/chain swapping that wanted to be carried out post-FTX.”

DEX volumes chart. Supply: QCP Capital

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, you must conduct your personal analysis when making a call.