$600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K

Nobody can blame Bitcoin (BTC) bulls for putting bets at $20,000 and better for the $600 million weekly choices expiry on Nov. 18. In spite of everything, this degree had offered a stable resistance since Oct. 25 and held for nearly two weeks.

Nevertheless, the bottom situation modified abruptly on Nov. 8 after a liquidity disaster halted withdrawals on the FTX exchange. The motion stunned merchants and over a 48-hour timespan, over $290 million in leverage patrons had been liquidated.

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Bitcoin/USD value index, 12-hour chart. Supply: TradingView

The market shortly adjusted to the information, starting from $15,800 to $17,800 for the previous seven days. In the meanwhile, traders are afraid that contagion dangers would possibly pressure different key gamers to promote their cryptocurrency positions.

FTX held important deposits from key trade gamers, so its demise meant different individuals would additionally face substantial losses. For instance, BlockFi held a $400 million credit line with FTX US. On Nov. 15, collateralized yield platform SALT disclosed important losses from the FTX collapse and subsequently halted withdrawals.

Related occasions occurred on the Japanese cryptocurrency alternate Liquid, rising the uncertainty degree in all the market.

The Nov. 18 choices expiry is particularly related as a result of Bitcoin bears can safe a $120 million revenue by suppressing BTC beneath $16,500.

Bulls positioned their bets at $20,000 and better

The open curiosity for the Nov. 18 weekly choices expiry is $600 million, however the precise determine will likely be decrease since bulls had been overly-optimistic. These merchants missed the mark, putting bearish bets at $18,000 and better, whereas BTC was dumped following the FTX insolvency.

Bitcoin choices mixture open curiosity for Nov. 18. Supply: CoinGlass

The 1.00 call-to-put ratio exhibits the right stability between the $300 million put (promote) open curiosity and the $300 million name (purchase) choices. However, as Bitcoin stands close to $16,500, most bullish bets will develop into nugatory.

If Bitcoin’s value stays beneath $17,500 at 8:00 am UTC on Oct. 21, solely 10% of those name (purchase) choices will likely be obtainable. This distinction occurs as a result of a proper to purchase Bitcoin at $18,000 or $19,000 is nugatory if BTC trades beneath the expiry value.

Bulls want a pump above $18,000 to return out forward

Under are the 4 most certainly situations based mostly on the present value motion. The variety of Bitcoin options contracts obtainable on Nov. 18 for name (bull) and put (bear) devices varies, relying on the expiry value. The imbalance favoring either side constitutes the theoretical revenue:

  • Between $15,500 and $16,500: 400 calls vs. 7,900 places. The web outcome favors the put (bear) devices by $120 million.
  • Between $16,500 and $17,500: 1,700 calls vs. 6,100 places. The web outcome favors the put (bear) devices by $75 million.
  • Between $17,500 and $18,000: 2,500 calls vs. 5,000 places. The web outcome favors the put (bear) devices by $45 million.
  • Between $18,000 and $18,500: 4,500 calls vs. 3,100 places. The web outcome favors the decision (bull) devices by $25 million.

This crude estimate considers the put choices utilized in bearish bets and the decision choices solely in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards extra complicated funding methods.

For instance, a dealer may have offered a put choice, successfully gaining constructive publicity to Bitcoin above a particular value, however sadly, there is not any simple approach to estimate this impact.

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BTC value dips beneath $16,000 shouldn’t be shocking

Bitcoin bears have to push the worth beneath $16,500 to safe a $120 million revenue. The bulls’ best-case situation requires a ten% pump above $18,000 to flip the tables and rating a $25 million achieve.

Contemplating that Bitcoin margin and choices devices present low confidence in regaining the $18,500 support, the most certainly final result for Friday’s expiry favors bears. Bulls is perhaps higher served by dropping out and concentrating on the Nov. 25 month-to-month choices expiry.