Analyst on $17.6K BTC price bottom: Bitcoin ‘not there yet’


Bitcoin’s (BTC) market conduct will not be but “synonymous” with earlier bear market bottoms, one of many main crypto analysts argues.

In a Twitter thread on Sept. 14, statistician Willy Woo, creator of information useful resource Woobull, offered three examples of why BTC/USD ought to nonetheless have additional to fall.

Regardless of many calling a new macro price bottom throughout June’s journey to $17,600, not everyone seems to be assured that Bitcoin will avoid a retest.

For Woo, there’s nonetheless cause to consider that decrease ranges will mark the brand new value flooring — and this might be wherever, together with beneath $10,000.

“Underwater” provide in need of backside zone

One metric Woo flags is the share of the general BTC provide held at a loss — now price greater than the value at which it final moved.

In earlier bear markets, value bottoms coincided with greater than 60% of cash being underwater.

“When it comes to max ache, the market has not felt the identical ache as prior bottoms,” he warned alongside a chart from on-chain analytics agency Glassnode.

In line with that chart, 52% of the availability is presently at a loss, and in an effort to hit the 60% mark, BTC/USD would want to dip to only $9,600.

Bitcoin price foundation density annotated chart. Supply: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Woo added that on the pit of Bitcoin’s prior bear markets, provide at a loss “cleanly” pierced a long-term development line, one thing additionally but to occur this time round.

Price foundation edges towards goal zone

One other telltale signal of the Bitcoin market bottoming lies within the composition of its investor base — long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.

Usually, on the backside, STHs have a decrease price foundation than LTHs. Which means that STHs paid much less for his or her cash than LTHs, the latter outlined as these hodling BTC for 155 days or extra.

“We’re shut, however not there but. Some extra time to burn IMO,” Woo commented.

Bitcoin hodler price foundation annotated chart. Supply: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Beforehand, David Puell, creator of the Puell A number of indicator, flagged differences in cost basis as an “fascinating” issue to think about for analysts.

Accumulation not “synonymous” with historical past

Lastly, hodlers massive and small nonetheless have to accumulate more durable, Woo concludes.

Associated: BTC price clings to $20K as US stocks lose the equivalent of 4 Bitcoin market caps

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Alongside a Glassnode chart of bear market accumulation tendencies, he famous that in 2022, BTC has not been flowing from sellers to “pressing” patrons at a comparable charge to earlier than.

Bitcoin bear market accumulation annotated chart. Supply: Willy Woo/ Twitter

“Up to now we have not had the degrees of accumulation synonymous to prior bottoms,” he defined.

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