Ethereum chain split is possible after the Merge, survey finds — But will ETC price keep climbing?

Ethereum’s proof-of-work (PoW) powered by GPUs generated roughly $19 billion in revenue final yr for ETH miners. However these income streams are at risk as Ethereum is predicted to turn out to be a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain through “the Merge” upgrade in September.

Miners might then revolt in opposition to the brand new improve by persevering with to mine on the outdated Ethereum PoW after the hard fork chain cut up. 

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A survey from crypto hedge fund Galois Capital just lately revealed that 33.1% of respondents consider that the Merge would create two parallel blockchains: ETH1 (PoW) and ETH2 (PoS).

Nonetheless, most respondents, or 53.7%, count on Ethereum’s chain to easily transition from PoW to PoS.

Is the ETH1 PoW “illogical”?

However contentious onerous forks aren’t something new. In actual fact, the present Ethereum chain got here to be in 2016 following a controversial onerous fork aimed toward reversing a $60 million exploit, leading to a series cut up between Ethereum and Ethereum Traditional (ETC).

That is the place the argument of Ethereum Traditional versus ETH1 begins. Since Ethereum Traditional is already a PoW chain, creating the same chain, ETH1, is not going to have “much relevance,” in keeping with some Redditors. 

A number of different feedback from Reddit explaining why ETH1 will fail embody:

In the meantime, most respondents within the Galois Capital survey additionally consider that exchanges and tasks (particularly Tether) will help ETH2 over ETH1 within the occasion of a tough fork.

What does it imply for Ethereum Traditional?

After reaching a report excessive in Might 2022, the Ethereum community’s hash fee has been downtrend, indicating that miners are pausing or shutting down their rigs within the weeks main as much as the Merge.

However, they may be changing into stakers on the Ethereum’s PoS chain.

Ethereum hash fee efficiency since September 2021. Supply: YCharts

The miners’ exit from the Ethereum community is seen within the current improve in GPU gross sales within the secondary market (in opposition to decrease demand), according to Tom’s {Hardware} GPU Pricing Index.

Nonetheless, there’s additionally an uptick within the number of social media threads that shows the miners’ technique after the Merge will possible be to modify to no matter PoW chain is extra worthwhile.

As of July 29, Ethereum Traditional was topping miners’ curiosity for its 116% weekly profitability, knowledge on shows

Concurrently, the value of ETC has soared by more than 200% in July.

ETC/USD day by day worth chart. Supply: TradingView

However that doesn’t take away the truth that Ethereum Traditional is a really small undertaking in comparison with Ethereum.

As of June 29, Ethereum Traditional had over 53,000 day by day lively addresses versus Ethereum’s 763,000.

Ethereum Traditional day by day lively addresses. Supply:

The distinction means that ETC’s ongoing worth growth is solely speculative since Ethereum Traditional stays largely underutilized as a series and with solely a handful of tasks. Due to this fact, ETC is definitely liable to a “promote the information” occasion after the Merge. 

On the identical time, a possible ETH1 PoW chain might also push down demand for ETC. 

ETC worth goal

On the weekly chart, ETC’s worth has reached a resistance confluence, awaiting a breakout because the euphoria surrounding the Merge grows.

Associated: Crypto mining still profitable in the long-term, expert says

The confluence contains the 0.786 Fib line (~$43) and a multi-month descending trendline. Each have traditionally capped ETC’s bullish makes an attempt up to now, because the chart under illustrates.

Nonetheless, a breakout transfer will increase the token’s potential to hit $75 subsequent, as a consequence of its proximity to the 0.618 Fib line.

ETC/USD weekly worth chart. Supply: TradingView

Conversely, a pullback transfer from both the resistance confluence or the 0.618 Fib line might have ETC eye a drop towards the help space illustrated above. It’s outlined by the pink bar, the multi-year rising trendline help (purple) and the descending channel’s decrease trendline (inexperienced).

In different phrases, ETC dangers dropping towards the $10–$12 space by September, down 75% from July 29’s worth.

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially mirror the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, you must conduct your personal analysis when making a call.