3 Bitcoin trading behaviors hint that BTC’s rebound to $24K is a ‘fakeout’

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Bitcoin (BTC) value rallied towards $24,200 on July 28 after a near-10.5% surge that started a day earlier.

The good points appeared after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled intentions to decelerate the Fed’s prevailing tightening spree. This prompted some Bitcoin analysts to foretell short-term upside continuation, with pseudonymous analyst CryptoHamster seeing BTC at $26,000 subsequent.

However BTC’s potential to recuperate solely from its ongoing bearish slumber seems low for no less than three key causes.

Bitcoin bulls have been duped earlier than

Bitcoin established its report excessive of $69,000 in November 2022. Since then, the cryptocurrency has declined by greater than 60% whereas present process a number of mini pumps on its method down. 

On the each day chart, Bitcoin has rebounded no less than 5 instances since November 2021, securing 23%-to-40% good points on every restoration. Nonetheless, it has continued its correction each time after forming a neighborhood value prime round its exponential transferring averages (EMA) after which falling to new yearly lows.

BTC/USD each day value chart that includes ‘fakeouts.’ Supply: TradingView

This time appears no completely different, with Bitcoin going through a bullish rejection in June and recovering practically 17% a month later. Notably, BTC value faces interim resistance in its 50-day EMA (the crimson wave) at round $23,150, with a breakout clearing its method towards $27,000, coinciding with the 100-day EMA (black).

At $27,000, the value would nonetheless type a decrease excessive in comparison with the earlier native tops. So, that technically raises the potential of one other bearish continuation transfer.

Excessive promoting, low shopping for quantity

Apparently, the quantity conduct in the course of the ongoing Bitcoin correction reveals a better curiosity in promoting the coin at native tops.

The each day chart under illustrates this by highlighting the quantity readings throughout downtrends and uptrends since November 2021. As an illustration, the final two large value declines in Might and June coincided with a pointy enhance in promoting volumes.

BTC/USD each day value chart. Supply: TradingView

Compared, the follow-up rebounds to these value declines accompanied modest to decrease buying and selling volumes. The continued quantity conduct appears the identical, peaking in the course of the downtrend and dropping as the value recovers.

This means a weakening upside momentum, which can result in one other value correction.

BTC to equities correlation flips again to constructive

Bitcoin is as soon as once more tailing inventory market developments regardless of briefly decoupling from them in early July.

As an illustration, on July 28, the day-to-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite stood close to 0.66. That features declines in each markets after the U.S. gross home product (GDP) plunged for a second consecutive quarter.

BTC/USD and NDAQ each day correlation coefficient. Supply: TradingView

That formally confirms that the U.S. has entered a “technical recession,” which may weigh negatively on the inventory market. Due to this fact, Bitcoin’s draw back prospects seem excessive if its constructive correlation with the inventory market continues.

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the views of Cointelegraph.com. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, it’s best to conduct your personal analysis when making a call.