$32K Bitcoin price could turn the tides in Friday’s $160M BTC options expiry


Twenty-three agonizing days have handed since Bitcoin (BTC) final closed above $32,000 and the ten% rally that came about on Might 29 and 30 is presently evaporating as BTC worth retraces towards $30,000. The transfer again to $30,000 merely confirms the robust correlation to conventional belongings and in the identical interval, the S&P 500 additionally retreated 0.6%.

Bitcoin/USD 12-hour worth at Kraken. Supply: TradingView

Weaker company income might strain the inventory market attributable to rising inflation and the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate of interest hikes, according to Citi strategist Jamie Fahy. As reported by Yahoo! Finance, Citi’s analysis word to purchasers acknowledged:

“Primarily, regardless of considerations concerning recession, earnings per share expectations for 2022/2023 have barely modified.”

In brief, the funding financial institution is anticipating worsening macroeconomic circumstances to cut back company income, and in flip, trigger buyers to reprice the inventory market decrease.

According to Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief funding strategist of GMO, “We ought to be in some kind of recession pretty shortly, and revenue margins from an actual peak have a great distance that they’ll decline.”

Because the correlation to the S&P 500 stays extremely excessive, Bitcoin buyers concern that the potential inventory market decline will inevitably result in a retest of the $28,000 degree.

S&P 500 and Bitcoin/USD 30-day correlation. Supply: TradingView

The correlation metric ranges from a destructive 1, which means choose markets transfer in reverse instructions, to constructive 1, which displays an ideal and symmetrical motion. A disparity or an absence of relationship between the 2 belongings can be represented by 0.

Presently, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin 30-day correlation stands at 0.88, which has been the norm for the previous couple of months.

Bearish bets are largely under $31,000

Bitcoin’s restoration above $31,000 on Might 30 took bears abruptly as a result of solely 20% of the put (promote) choices for June 3 have been positioned above such a worth degree.

Bitcoin bulls could have been fooled by the recent $32,000 resistance test and their bets for the $825 million options expiry go all the way to $50,000.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 3. Source: CoinGlass

A broader view using the 0.77 call-to-put ratio shows more bearish bets because the put (sell) open interest stands at $465 million against the $360 million call (buy) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands above $31,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains above $31,000 at 8:00 am UTC on June 3, only $90 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in a right to sell Bitcoin at $31,000 if it trades above that level on expiry.

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Bulls might pocket a $160 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 3 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $29,000 and $30,000: 1,100 calls vs. 5,100 puts. The net result favors bears by $115 million.
  • Between $30,000 and $32,000: 4,400 calls vs. 4,000 puts. The net result is balanced between call (buy) and put (sell) instruments.
  • Between $32,000 and $33,000: 6,600 calls vs. 1,600 puts. The net result favors bulls to $160 million.
  • Between $33,000 and $34,000: 7,600 calls vs. 800 puts. Bulls extend their gains to $225 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets, and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Bears have less margin required to suppress Bitcoin price

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $30,000 on June 3 to secure a $115 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls’ best case scenario requires a push above $33,000 to increase their gains to $225 million.

However, Bitcoin bears had $289 million leverage short positions liquidated on May 29, according to data from Coinglass. Consequently, they have less margin required to push the price lower in the short term.

With this said, the most probable scenario is a draw, causing Bitcoin price to range near $31,000 ahead of the June 3 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and don’t essentially mirror the views of Cointelegraph. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger. You must conduct your individual analysis when making a choice.