Avalanche (AVAX) gained 0.5% to succeed in over $31 on Could 23 however AVAX value stays trapped inside a buying and selling vary that seems like a “bear pennant” construction.
Avalanche may get buried technicals
Bear pennants are bearish continuation patterns, i.e., they resolve after the worth breaks out of them to the draw back after which—as a rule of technical evaluation—falls by as a lot as the peak of the earlier downtrend, additionally known as “flagpole.”
AVAX is nearing a technical breakdown as its value strikes towards the pennant’s apex, i.e., the purpose the place its higher and decrease trendlines converge.
This paints the bearish goal for the AVAX/USD pair at $11.50 by June 2022, down about 65% from right now’s value, as proven beneath.
AVAX value: key help ranges
Conversely, AVAX’s breakdown setup towards $11.50 may fell brief on account of sure key help areas.
As an example, the Avalanche token’s quantity profile exhibits it buying and selling close to its level of management (POC)—the extent the place the merchants had been most lively since 2021—round $32.
Curiously, the extent was instrumental in capping AVAX’s draw back makes an attempt within the August-September 2021 session; it preceded a 390% bull run, which noticed AVAX reaching its record high of around $150 in late November 2021.
The POC stage additionally served as a median throughout the consolidation development witnessed between January 2021 and Could 2021. Now, It holds as a value flooring whilst AVAX eyes the bear pennant breakdown, as mentioned above.
In the meantime, making a Fibonacci retracement graph from AVAX’s $2.75-swing low to $97.50-swing excessive exhibits AVAX consolidating between its 0.618 Fib line (close to $40) and 0.786 Fib line (round 23), as proven beneath.
That raises Avalanche’s chance of retesting $23 as help, adopted by a rebound transfer towards $40. Such a transfer would threat invalidating the bear pennant setup.
Immediately, Avalanche trades practically 78% beneath its document excessive of round $150, burdened by a powerful bearish sentiment elsewhere within the crypto market in the next rate of interest atmosphere.
As well as, the latest Terra ecosystem meltdown has additionally confused the costs of AVAX and different cryptos decrease.
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 22, 2022
However the worst remains to be but to come back if AVAX continues trending in sync with the highest crypto Bitcoin (BTC) and, in flip, its international risk-on counterparts, corresponding to Nasdaq. The correlation coefficient between Avalanche and Nasdaq was 0.91 as of Could 23, displaying that they’ve been transferring in near-perfect tandem.
On the brighter observe, AVAX exhibits promise of an interim upside state of affairs with a divergence between its rising relative power index (RSI) and falling costs, in line with Scott Melker, an impartial market analyst.
“There are potential bullish divergences with oversold RSI on a ton of every day altcoin charts,” mentioned Melker, including:
“Want definitive elbow up on RSI, however I nonetheless assume now we have been bottoming right here throughout markets…. for now.”
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